Analysis and Assessment – Impact and Uncertainty

Having now collected the 90+ events and driving forces (I have still to really identify which are which within the roadmap), I have added my own sense to the feedback I have been receiving and assessed each for their impact on, and uncertainty around the core questions:

• How will the UK’s healthcare system manage the tension between the cost of care, the quality of care and the engagement of patients, carers and the public generally in 2030?
• What are the implications for providers and consumers of care over the next 20 years?

The roadmap now also includes a judgement about when across the time period (2010 to 2030) each event will be at its most significant. This becomes important when we look at making sense of how the scenarios link back to what we know is happening today.

The assessment phase became real to me having downloaded the event information to Excel, and built a Workbook to sort and categorise the events into one of four sectors of the Impact / Uncertainty plot.

Here are the events allocated to each sector of the plot:

NB The events are not sorted within each sector.


The next stage will be to create the scenario grid from the most impactful and uncertain events name each scenario and start the process of describing how the various stakeholders will be impacted by each driving force within each scenario.

Here are some links that might be useful to you:

The Healthcare System Futures 2030 roadmap (MS Silverlight required to view).

The latest roadmap pdf to describe what information is where and how it be viewed in the roadmap.

The informing choices website – http://www.informingchoices.com/.

The first post of this blog for some context to the work.

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